The Big Picture
The ideas that surround the thesis — exponential change, the economics of human labor, desire versus demand, regulation as friction, the future shape of work. Frameworks, not conclusions: better tools for thinking it through yourself. The core five-part argument lives in The Arc.
- Essay 01
The Exponential Blind Spot
Why humans — including experts — consistently underestimate the rate of technological change, and what that means for everything else.
- Essay 02
The Desire/Demand Distinction
The hidden variable in economics that explains motivation, golden ages, and revolutions — and why it's structurally widening.
- Essay 03
Energy as the Fundamental Currency of Production
When labor goes to zero, production reduces to energy and raw materials. Money is just an energy proxy we forgot to look through.
- Essay 04
Regulation as Friction
Markets optimize. Regulation tells them what to optimize for. Both sides of the political debate are getting this wrong.
- Essay 05
The Baseball Analogy — The Future Shape of Skilled Work
Professional engineering might end up looking like professional baseball — a few stars, a vast amateur majority, and meaning decoupled from income.
- Essay 06
The Resonance Model — We're Measuring AI Wrong
Everyone evaluates AI on first-pass output. The metric that actually matters is convergence rate — how fast the iterative cycle between you and the model reaches a great result.
- Essay 07
Karpathy's Wiki Is Better Than He Thinks
The LLM Wiki pattern went viral. Everyone built a better filing cabinet. What if the substrate is right but the ambition is too small?